Impact analysis of the Common Agricultural Policy reform on main agricultural commodities

IPTS seeks in-house analytical capacities to analyse the impact of agricultural policies at Member State, EU15 and EU25 levels as well as for Bulgaria and Romania. Against this background, the project fulfils these needs and will provide a modelling tool that allows for projections and policy analysis (up to a 10 year horizon) for the enlarged EU.

The objectives of this study are threefold:

1) to develop an agricultural sector model for the enlarged EU, implemented in standard computer software (GAMS and MS Excel) and installed on the IPTS computers; 2) to provide market projections for the main European agricultural commodities based on the latest agricultural and trade policy developments and information available; 3) to assess the impacts of various policy scenarios on the main European agricultural commodities. In particular, these scenarios will regard the introduction of decoupling and new direct payment schemes as well as the enlargement of the EU.

Projections and simulations are made for:

1) the individual EU Member States: Austria, Belgium (including Luxembourg), Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece (including Cyprus), Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia; 2) the accession candidates Bulgaria and Romania; 3) EU15 as a whole (15 Member States to May 2004); 4) EU25 as a whole (25 Member States from May 2004); 5) EU27 as a whole (25 Member States from May 2004, Bulgaria and Romania).

Emphasis of the projections will be on supply, demand, trade and prices in all countries for the main agricultural commodities like cereals, oilseeds, livestock products and dairy products.

The project provides the following outputs:

1) a modelling system for the agricultural sector in EU Member States, the integrated EU15 as a whole, Bulgaria, Romania and the aggregated EU25/27 as a whole; 2) four reports with descriptions on research techniques developed, projection results, results of validation procedures, results and analysis of scenarios; 3) workshop with agricultural sector experts from the member states to endorse the consistency of the model results presented; 4) three one-day training sessions in the Commission premises in Seville, including practical courses and provision of user documentation.

The project consists of 22 teams, representing different EU countries complemented with Romania and Bulgaria. All teams belong to the AGMEMOD Partnership and have experience in the area of agricultural policy modelling and policy analysis in general.

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