The modelling undertaken by the FAPRI Ireland partnership takes place at two levels.

To see a grahpical representation click here.

Macro Level Modelling

The focus of this area of research in on the development of sectoral level models for Irish agriculture. Individual models have been developed for agricultural outputs such as beef, milk sheep meat, pig meat, poultry and crops. Agricultural Inputs models have also been developed.

These are econometric models which means that historical data has been used to establish relationship s between variables to allow future predictions to be made.

These models have been used to produce future projections for the path of Irish agriculture over the next 10 years.

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Farm Level Modelling

The intended purpose of farm level modelling is to project the effects of a change in agricultural policy at the farm level. The farm level aspect is modelled using representative farms, which were developed, from Teagasc's National Farm Survey.

The research focuses on the implications of sectoral projections, from the macro model, for representative farms. The farmer response to new agricultural policy scenarios is estimated using a mathematical programming approach. The mathematical programming model projects the representative farm's adjustment path over a multi-year planning horizon.

 

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Environmental Modelling

In 2002, the FAPRI-Ireland model was extended to include an environmental dimension. This was done as a response to the increasing concerns about the environmental implications of the existing agricultural practices.

The extensions to the model include three sub-models which enable conversion of the standard output from the macro modelling into greenhouse gas and ammonia emission levels, as well carbon sequestration by on-farm forests.

The objective of the modelling is to generate projections of net greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from Irish agriculture under various policy scenarios. Using the model as an analytical tool can facilitate selection of the least costly method of achieving reduction targets agreed under the Kyoto and Gothenburg Protocols.