The modelling undertaken by the FAPRI
Ireland partnership takes place at two levels.
Modelling | Farm Level Modelling |
To see a grahpical representation
Macro Level Modelling
The focus of this area
of research in on the development of sectoral level models for Irish
agriculture. Individual models have been developed for agricultural
outputs such as beef, milk sheep meat, pig meat, poultry and crops.
Agricultural Inputs models have also been developed.
These are econometric models which
means that historical data has been used to establish relationship s
between variables to allow future predictions to be made.
These models have been used to
produce future projections for the path of
Irish agriculture over the next 10 years.
Farm Level Modelling
The intended purpose of
farm level modelling is to project the effects of a change in
agricultural policy at the farm level. The farm level aspect is
modelled using representative farms, which were developed, from
Teagasc's National Farm Survey.
The research focuses on
the implications of sectoral projections, from the macro model, for
representative farms. The farmer response to new agricultural policy
scenarios is estimated using a mathematical programming approach. The
mathematical programming model projects the representative farm's
adjustment path over a multi-year planning horizon.
In 2002, the FAPRI-Ireland model was
extended to include an environmental dimension. This was done as a
response to the increasing concerns about the environmental
implications of the existing agricultural practices.
The extensions to the model include
three sub-models which enable conversion of the standard output from
the macro modelling into greenhouse gas and ammonia emission levels,
as well carbon sequestration by on-farm forests.
The objective of the modelling is to
generate projections of net greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from
Irish agriculture under various policy scenarios. Using the model as
an analytical tool can facilitate selection of the least costly method
of achieving reduction targets agreed under the Kyoto and Gothenburg